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Jan Schmucker's avatar

One of the most striking aspects is how reforms often fail not because societies resist change, but because intermediary elites have little incentive to support reforms that would dissolve their privileged position.

Modernization can threaten elites long before it empowers majorities.

Chris's avatar

Thank you for the article, it draws some interesting points as do many of the comments. I see Europe's problems as having multiple dimensions, with only partial parallels to the case of the Ottomans: composition, political authority, established interests, sun-"national" administration, global context. In then Ottoman Empire the Sunni Turks were a pluraity minority, and unlike the Hapsburg Austrians they weren't indigenous to the space they came to dominate. To the established population's if the Balkans and Anatolia they were seen as illegitimate: Muslim invaders that had to be evicted like with Iberia (and rebellions were a constant feature throughout Ottoman history). Even amongst the Muslim Arabs the Turks were viewed as exogenous: barbaric nomads, uncultured and not real Muslims. During the Tanzimat reforms slavery was still ongoing for non-Muslims. The history and composition of the empire didn't favour secular republicanism, and the Turks lacked the authority to implement it: political, historical and technical/administrative- they were viewed as incompetent and were already in the 2nd century of constant defeats by neighbours. This was made worse by the banning of the printing presses in prior centuries for Muslims who thus faced mass illiteracy, while Christians and Jews were pulling ahead in the 19th century due to literacy and multilingualism. This was deeply resented by Muslims, who viewed themselves superior and led to deadly pogroms and riots: the Muslim was superior, the infidel was vile and had to pay hommage and Jizya (in his ancestral lands!). For nationalist reasons the local administration was anti-national, no regional authorities with compétences other than exploitative tax-farming, who were seen more as sellouts and collaborators to the oppresers. Contrast this with the Hapsburgs, who had administrative authority, shared religion, greater meritocracy and competent regional elites. The situation in the "multicultural" EU is quite different: nation states are legitimate, but the elites are losing legitimacy due to swlf-serving politics that fail and so they retreat to Brussels to add a super-national layer of defense from public cries for changes. There is a well educated population that has a huge intergenerational transition to make (less pension spending, more investment, break up rent-seeking cartels, streamline administrative state). Too many comfort zones have to be popped, but hard budget constraints will pop them anyway and the choice will be true reform or return to feudalism (as happened here in Greece after 2010).

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